Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Despite Offseason Optimism, History Suggests Bleak Outlook for Ravens WRs

Breshad Perriman's career hasn't exactly gone according to plan. Coming out of Central Florida, he was branded as the son of a long-term NFL veteran with high upside as a 21-year-old speedster. Those things are still all true, but the possibility of Perriman not playing in his first two years in the league is legitimate.

It's not a talent issue he's having with the Baltimore Ravens. The first-round pick simply hasn't been healthy enough to see the field. After playing in 39 games in college, the injury bug has spent plenty of time hanging around Perriman.

It started with the NFL Scouting Combine, which the wideout sat out due to a hamstring issue. Then, he bruised his knee on the first day of training camp in 2015, which eventually was disclosed as a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) issue. That kept him out of the early regular season.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Network then reported Perriman, during an attempt to test the health of his knee during pregame workouts, reinjured his PCL, forcing a surgery that eventually landed him on the injured reserve list, ending his rookie campaign: 

According to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, Perriman's treatment included stem cells, which isn't a process that's often used in sports. Unfortunately, that didn't prevent an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, which ESPN's Adam Schefter reported would lead to surgery, from happening. Now, Perriman's 2016 season may be in jeopardy due to another knee issue.

According to Schefter, there is "absolutely" a chance Perriman is going to play this year, but this is likely coming from a Baltimore camp that vocalized the same hopes last season and stated it didn't need a receiver, about one month before drafting Perriman with their top draft choice, in the first place.

What's the status of the rest of Baltimore's receiver unit? How do they look in the short term if Perriman doesn't suit up in 2016? How do they look in the long term without Perriman in the picture? An overview of the Ravens' options paints a portrait fans and Joe Flacco may want to quickly forget.

 

Steve Smith

When Perriman was seven years old, the Carolina Panthers drafted Steve Smith in the third round of the 2001 draft. After five Pro Bowls and a legendary 2005 season, it's hard to claim Smith's career hasn't been one of the best out of this generation's loaded wideout pool, but that same career is coming to an end.

Sure, Smith has nearly 14,000 receiving yards under his belt, but he's also a 37-year-old, and the timeline of his 2015 season is almost a parody of what we think of when the term "aging superstar" is brought up in sports debates.

According to Jeff Zerbiec of the Baltimore Sun, back in August, Smith stated 2015 was going to be his last campaign, just prior to the regular season's kickoff. Per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, Smith stated he was "on schedule" when the topic was brought up in October. Assuming Smith will last more than just one more year with the team seems misguided based on Smith's mindset, which already seems to be focused on his closing career.

Smith also has struggled with injuries as of late, which should be no surprise considering his age. According to Chick Hernandez of CSN Washington, Smith broke four bones in his back last season. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport also included broken ribs to the diagnosis.

The big injury everyone remembers from Smith's 2016 season was his Achilles tear, which put him on the injured reserve list, effectively ending his season, but just before that game, Zerbiec reported a knee issue with the veteran wideout, too. In early June, Smith told Hensley, "I don't know when I'm coming back," in regard to his recovery.

On the surface, Smith is a rapidly aging pass-catcher who is a short-term mask for the long-term problem the Ravens have. It's anyone's guess if he will be on the field for a full 16 games in the remainder of his NFL career.

 

Kamar Aiken

Kamar Aiken had one of the bigger NFL breakout seasons last year. Now, the question is if it was because of his talent or because someone had to catch footballs from Joe Flacco with Perriman and Smith out of the picture?

Prior to 2015, Aiken had 267 receiving yards in his NFL career, which was a significantly small number for a 26-year-old with an active roster spot. Like Perriman, he was also a Central Florida football player, and like Perriman, he had to wait years into his career to see the field consistently. His 944-yard, five-touchdown 2015, in 14 starts, seemingly came out of nowhere, though, whereas Perriman's goals were set high from the start.

The name that comes up when undrafted players have a breakout volume season is Jarrett Boykin. In 2013, Boykin was able to post 681 yards, catching balls from Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers. In his combined career to this date, excluding the 2013 season, Boykin has 50 receiving yards. When the Packers refused to give him a tender, it was clear the team at least thought of the pass-catcher as a one-hit wonder.

You can tell a lot more about how general managers feel about their own players when looking at their actions, rather than what they say when microphones are recording everything they say, as writers hope to catch one sentence in which they slip up and say "the wrong thing." Baltimore had to make a statement on Aiken this offseason, when it was able to place a tender on the wideout. This is what the Ravens' actions said: We like you, but we don't love you.

The Ravens gave Aiken a second-round tender, which is about $1 million less than a first-round tender. A $3.6 million first-round tender would have put Aiken in the price range of veterans like Stevie Johnson, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley and Andrew Hawkins—athletes who would be better categorized as role players than No. 1 receivers.

A first-round tender would have made Aiken the 43rd receiver in terms of per-year salary, according to Spotrac. Baltimore refused to pay him at that talent level, instead electing to place the second-round tender on him, making him the 54th highest-paid receiver on a per-year basis.

If you're looking at Aiken to be a quality starter opposite Smith in the short term or a long-term starter opposite Perriman, you'd be going against the grain of his team's own front office. Their coaching staff and front office can blow smoke to the media, but based off their actions, they know Aikens is closer to a one-year wonder than a piece to build an offense around. Aiken is also in a contract year after signing that one-year tender, which means his 2017 status with the team is up in the air with Smith's.

 

Mike Wallace

Like Aiken, Mike Wallace is on a short-term contract with the Baltimore Ravens. Wallace, a speed demon, will turn 30 years old before the season starts. Unfortunately, those types of receivers are the fastest to age.

When receivers who live and die off their speed no longer have that asset, it's a rapid drop for their careers. This is already evident in Wallace's career. In his first three years in Pittsburgh, he averaged 19.4, 21 and 16.6 yards per catch. Over the last three years, he's posted 12.7, 12.9 and 12.1 yards per catch on the season. Last year, his first with the Minnesota Vikings, he was only making 29.6 yards per game, which is subpar for a 12-game starter.

For reference, his 39 receptions, 473 yards and two touchdown totals were the worst in his career. In his rookie season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, he also caught 39 balls, but he posted 756 yards and six touchdowns that year. After his stint with Pittsburgh, he signed a $60 million contract with the Miami Dolphins—a deal that got him traded to the Vikings after just two years. The Dolphins only paid $27 million of his projected $60 million.

After one year with the Vikings, he then signed a two-year contract with the Ravens this offseason. In three offseasons, he's bounced around to three different teams. He's far from his 2011 Pro Bowl bid. There may be some hope that Wallace returns to his early career self, but it's unlikely, at his age, he'll regain the speed he once had, which was by far his best attribute.

 

The rest

If you're a hardcore draftnik, the names Jeremy Butler and Kaelin Clay are on your radar, but there are only three names left in the wide receiver unit that should make an impact on paper. Unless you're focusing on late fourth quarters of preseason games, Michael Campanaro, Chris Moore and Keenan Reynolds are the only other standout wideouts on the roster sheet.

Campanaro is a seventh-round pick who has had 12 receptions in two years. He may develop into a starting slot receiver, but it's pretty clear the Ravens need to improve both outside receivers, making them more impactful roles, relative to who they were sending out in 2015.

It should also be noted that only three seventh-round receivers in the past decade have developed into starting-caliber pass-catchers, and two of them Julian Edelman and Marques Colston, saw success much earlier in their careers than Campanaro has at this point.

Moore was a late riser in the draft process, eventually landing as a fourth-round pick in this past offseason's draft. In college, he showed little refinement in route running, but promise as a vertical receiver. His 40-yard dash time may raise an eyebrow, though. According to Mock Draftable, his 4.53-second 40-yard dash is average, which isn't good for a player who is labeled as just a deep threat.

In fact, the site's athletic comparisons of A.J. Jenkins, a first-round bust, and Da'Rick Rogers, a harolded college player with off-field concerns and virtually no NFL presence, are concerning. I'd suggest cautious optimism when looking at Moore long term.

Reynolds is best known as the NCAA's career rushing touchdowns leader. As an option quarterback with the Naval Academy, he often had the ball in his hand, which should help his transition as a first-time receiver. The Secretary of the Navy gave Reynolds permission to play professional football, which means he won't have to sit out the sport like the Roger Staubachs of the past. At this point, Reynolds is a volatile projection, as we've never seen him play receiver in a live competitive match.

There would be one more name on this list, Darren Waller, last year's sixth-round pick, but he has since been moved to the tight end position. Waller caught two passes in 2015 before he was placed on the injured reserve list.

 

Conclusion

At the end of the day, the Baltimore Ravens have an often-injured 37-year-old, a potential one-year wonder, a step-slow home run hitter and some misfit toys ready to replace Breshad Perriman after his injury. The odds are against the organization, which may field the league's weakest receiver unit in 2016.

Since Torrey Smith left after the 2014 season, the team has been looking for starting-caliber receivers as long-term replacements for the two Smiths. If Perriman doesn't get healthy this regular season, the team's hand may be forced to invest at the position, either in free agency or the draft, in 2017.

Read more Baltimore Ravens news on BleacherReport.com



from Bleacher Report - Baltimore Ravens http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2646075-despite-offseason-optimism-history-suggests-bleak-outlook-for-ravens-wrs

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.